How does funding affect severe weather forecasts for insurers?

Takeaways:

• Changes at NOAA and NWS will affect storm forecasts
• State could shoulder more disaster costs
• AI models still aren't reliable forecasters

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting 13-19 named storms during the season, with 6-10 expected to become hurricanes and 3-5 evolving into major hurricanes as Category 3, 4 or 5 storms. However, funding cuts to a number of federal agencies could affect carriers' ability to track the storms and mitigate some of the damage. 
"There are several potential implications of decreased federal funding to agencies that provide weather-related data," said Katarina Pregelj, general manager, underwriting solutions at Applied Systems in a statement to Digital Insurance. "Today, carriers rely heavily on these agencies for underwriting, forecasting and damage confirmation. The data is reliable, consistently reported, and—importantly—available free of charge in most cases."

NOAA's National Weather Service Director, Ken Graham, said in a statement that "the National Weather Service has never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather," and encouraged the public to be proactive and prepare before any storms hit.

Alternative sources for tracking weather

An increased reliance on artificial intelligence and modeling could help alleviate some of the loss of data, but Howard Altschule, CEO and certified consulting meteorologist at Forensic Weather Consultants, cautions against relying too heavily on some of the models. "Since the widespread layoffs of numerous NOAA and NWS personnel, I've heard that some of the computer models have been performing very poorly (i.e., been inaccurate) compared to some of counterparts like the European model. Obviously, this could have a significant impact on the accuracy and forecasting of severe weather outbreaks and in particular, hurricanes."

Staffing shortages could mean that alerts from the National Weather Service are delayed, which could be particularly devastating in the event of tornadoes or other quickly moving storms. 

Alternative sources of data could also cost carriers more to access them, creating a cascading effect for all involved. "While there are peril-specific alternatives in the market, they often come at a higher cost and may lack standardization or consistency," explains Pregelj. "As carriers turn more heavily to these sources, those additional costs may be passed on to customers, driving up the price of insurance. A decline in data reliability and consistency could also reduce forecast accuracy, potentially leading to greater losses—which, again, would ultimately result in higher premiums for consumers."

The funding cuts and layoffs are also affecting other areas for carriers, particularly from a legal perspective. "Staff at the National Center for Environmental Information have seen layoffs to the point where they have a skeleton crew who can prepare certified weather records orders for use in court. Turnaround times may be longer, and some products can no longer be archived and certified," explains Altschule.

Much of the costs for any weather events could be borne by the individual states this hurricane season as FEMA's newly appointed acting chief has indicated, although the President recently approved disaster relief for eight states that were already affected by natural disasters earlier this year. What that portends for hurricane season is yet to be determined.